Slow Transition

Slow transition requires significant storage basis current trend of RE penetration with 34 TWh of storage at 76% RE penetration

Dynamic transition

Higher RE penetration requires 50% increase in storage due to higher degree of variability in electricity mix

Shine

Increased share of Solar within the RE mix at same RE penetration requires 100% more storage due to diurnal nature of solar

Slow Transition

Slow transition scenario requires significant storage basis current track of RE penetration

Dynamic transition

Increase in RE penetration >60% pushes for a near equal split as long duration storage is required for seasonal variations

Shine

Increased share of solar in RE mix does not affect the share of long duration storage in the mix

Battery
Storage (Twh)

• Planned capacity to reach 24 TWh which covers current RE trend
• More push needed to cover requirements due to greater RE share

While low in initial investment, scaling BESS becomes expensive with scale due to high storage cost ( ~$480 per kWh). Higher duration¹ costs exponentially more

PSH (Twh)

• Stagnant growth in PSH reaching ~10.5 TWh, inadequate even for current RE projections
• Large investments required now to cover long duration storage in coming decade

Despite lower cost of storage (~$290 per kWh), high upfront cost is required for PSH along with long lead time of 5-10 years for project implementation

Context

The 2000-2001 energy crisis exposed California’sover-reliance on non-renewable sources

Growing concerns about air pollution, energy security, and climate change increased the pressure to diversify energy sources

California, with abundant sunshine, recognized solar energy as a key renewable resource

The California Solar Initiative (CSI) was launched in 2007 to drive solar adoption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Implementation

Performance-based rebates provided for installing PV systems across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors

3,000 MW of solar installations planned under the Go Solar California campaign

Large initial state funding allowed for widespread consumer access to financial incentives, making solar more affordable in a high- income state with significant policy support for green initiatives

Program fostered competition among installers, driving innovation and efficiency

Impact

Initial goal of 3,000 MW of solar capacity surpassed in 2016. 49.4 GW installation in 2024

~80,000 jobs created in California’s solar industry

CSI helped position California as the leading solar market in the U.S., contributing to 14.5% of the state’s total electricity from solar by 2020

However, the program's reliance on financial rebates highlighted concerns regarding sustainability after rebates ended, and costs for lower-income consumers remained a challenge

Context

Ethiopia has one of the lowest electricity access rates in Africa, with a significant portion of the population living in off-grid areas

The country’s energy mix is heavily reliant on hydropower, which is vulnerable to climate related disruptions such as droughts, necessitating diversification

With abundant solar resources, Ethiopia sought to scale up solar energy as part of its broader effort to improve energy accessand energy security

Implementation

In partnership with the World Bank, Ethiopia launched the Scaling Solar initiative, aiming t quickly deploy large-scale solar projects.

The initiative used competitive reverse auctions to attract private sector investment, ensuring cost- efficient solar deployment

Long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) were offered to developers to guarantee stable revenue streams, making the projects financially attractive

Scaling Solar’s streamlined approvals and minimized bureaucratic hurdles in projects

Impact

Ethiopia added ~500 MWof solar capacity through Scaling Solar

Solar power has become more affordable due to competitive pricing, improving access to clean electricity in rural and underserved areas

While Scaling Solar has been effective in driving utility-scale solar growth, grid limitations and delays in regulatory processes remain challenges to further scaling

The reliance on external funding highlighted the importance of securing long-term financial sustainability

Context

South Africa has long relied on coal for electricity generation, with coal power accounting for over 80% of the country’s energy mix

Frequent power shortages and rolling blackouts (load shedding), caused by theaging coal infrastructure, underscored the need for diversification and reliable energy solutions

The country's strong solar potential due to abundant sunshine, coupled with the need for greater energy security, positioned solar as a viable alternative

Implementation

South Africa launched the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), which aims to attract private investment in renewable energy projects, including solar

Through competitive bidding processes, solar projects were awarded long-term contracts to supply electricity to national grid

The government also supported smaller-scale solar rooftop installations through financial incentives and streamlined approvals particularly in high demand urban area

Impact

South Africa installed over 2 GW of solar capacity through the REIPPPP by 2020

Solar energy helped alleviate pressure on the grid, reducing the frequency of power outages and providing a cleaner, more reliable energy

Job creation in the renewable energy sector, particularlyin rural areas where solar farms were built, provided economic benefits

However, the slow pace of grid modernization and the ongoing reliance on coal limited the impact of renewable energy adoption

Context

Historically, the UK relied heavily on coal for electricity generation, but climate change concerns and the need to phase out coal by 2024 shifted the focus to renewable energy

The UK government set ambitious targets for decarbonization, including significant investments in solar energy to reduce carbon emissions and increase energy security

With less favorable weather conditions compared to other countries, the UK had to explore innovative ways to maximize its solar potential, particularly through large-scale solar farms

Implementation

The UK government introduced Contracts for Difference (CfD), a financial mechanism that guaranteed a fixed price for electricity generated by renewable energy projects, including solar farms providing a stable revenue stream for developers, encouraging investments in large-scale solar farms

The government streamlined the planning process for solar farm development and provided grants to support RE infrastructure

Integration with battery storage systems ensure stable energy in limited sunlight

Impact

Solar farms have significantly contributed to the UK’s renewable energy mix, with solar energy accounting for approximately 4% of the country’s electricity generation

The CfD mechanism has attracted investment in large-scale solar projects, helping the UK meet climate goals and phase out coal power

Solar farms have created jobs and contributed to economic growth in rural areas

Context

China, the world’s largest consumer of coal, recognized the need to reduce pollution and shift toward cleaner energy sources in theearly 2000s

The Chinese government viewed renewable energy, particularly solar, as a strategic industry for economic growth and global competitiveness

China’s high manufacturing capacity and state-controlled economy provided the foundation for scaling up solar production rapidly

Implementation

Extensive government subsidies, low-cost loans, and export incentives to state-owned and private solar panel manufacturers

Focused on scaling up production to drive down costs, improve technology, and achieve efficiency through economies of scale

Emphasis on exporting solar panels to global markets drove China as world’s largest producer of solar equipment by 2011

Impact

Between 2010 and 2020, global solar panel costs decreased by over 80%, largely driven by China’s scaled-up production

China became both the largest producer and exporter of solar panels, accounting for a significant share of global solar installations

Despite rapid growth, China’s domestic solar market faced challenges such as overcapacity and reliance on government subsidies, which at times led to market imbalances

Context

Germany faced increasing public opposition to nuclear energy following the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, pushing the country to search for safer alternatives

High dependence on imported fossil fuels and a desire to enhance energy security drove the need for a comprehensive energy transition

As a high-income country with strong industrial capacity, Germany had the economic resources and public will to invest in large-scale renewable energy, laying the foundation for Energiewende

Implementation

The 2000 Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), provided Feed- in Tariffs (FiTs) that guaranteed RE producers fixed, above-market prices for electricity fed into the grid

Long term contracts in Solar PV systems encouraged investment across sectors

Significant investment in domestic pane manufacturing and grid modernization

FiTs were progressivelyreduced to reflect falling technology costs

Transition plan to retrain and reskill coal workers to enter new industries, esp. RE

Impact

Solar energy now contributes around 13% of Germany’s electricity generation

The FiT model accelerated development of solar, making Germany a leader in RE capacity while avoidingnuclear and coal reliance

Rising consumer energy costs due to renewable surcharges and grid bottlenecks highlights the need for further reforms

Grid modernization lags behind the growth in solar energy, creating delays in accommodating renewable energy and occasionally increasing reliance on coal

Context

In 2011, the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) was established as a specialized public sector enterprise under the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE)

Formed as a public sector enterprise (PSE), SECI was set up to implement India’s ambitious National Solar Mission goals with a mandate to implement the National Solar Mission’s ambitious targets, including 100 GW of solar power by 2022

A dedicated agency with RE expertise streamlined solar policy implementation

Implementation

SECI was designed as a specialized agency to facilitate implementation of solar projects and coordinate among various stakeholders—MNRE, state governments, and private companies

Collaborated with state governments to establish solar parks, facilitating land acquisition and infrastructure development

Structured financial models like Viability Gap Funding (VGF) to reduce investor risks and ensure project viability

Impact

India’s solar capacity grew from less than 3 GW in 2014 to over 40 GW by 2021 due to SECI’s role in organizing solar parks and facilitating reverse auctions

SECI’s competitive bidding process led to India achieving some of the world’s lowest solar tariffs, making solar power economically competitive with fossil fuels

SECI also acted as a bridge between local developers and international financiers such as World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and various climate funds to drive solar projects

Context

Brazil has historically relied heavily on hydropower for electricity generation, but droughts caused by climate change have made theenergy supply less reliable

Increasing energy demand and the growing need for energy diversification pushed the Brazilian government to explore alternative sources, including solar power

Brazil’s favorable climate for solar energy, combined with high electricity costs, created ideal conditions for the expansion of distributed solar generation

Implementation

In 2012, Brazil introduced net metering regulations, enabling residential and commercial consumers to install solar panels and feed excess electricity back to the grid

Consumers receive credits on their electricity bills for the surplus power generated, incentivizing investments in rooftop solar

Tax incentives further reduced the cost of solar installations

Distributed solar systems is being adopted by households and small businesses to reduce operational costs and reliance on the grid

Impact

Brazil reached over 7 GW of distributed solar capacity by 2020 increasing to 45 GW in 2024

The system has led to significant reductions inelectricity bills, contributing to wider solar adoption and improved energy security

The initiative has also created~165000 jobs in the solarsector by 2020, from installation to maintenance

Challenges remain in ensuring equitable access to solar energy for lower-income households and upgrading grid infrastructure to accommodate distributed generation

Context

Kenya’s rural areas have long struggled with limited access to electricity, with many households relying on expensive and harmful kerosene for lighting

Extending the national grid to these remote areas is both financially and logistically challenging, prompting the need for decentralized, clean energy solutions

As mobile phone penetration soared across Kenya, mobile money systems like M-PESA became widely used, creating a foundation for pay-as-you- go (PAYG) models for solar

Implementation

Launched in 2012, M-KOPA Solar provides solar home systems (SHS) through a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) financing model

Customers make small, manageable payments through M-PESA, Kenya’s mobile money platform, to pay for the system over time, reducing the burden of upfront costs

Each SHS typically includes PV panels, lighting, phone chargers, and radios, offering reliable power tooff-grid homes

Impact

As of 2021, over 800,000 households have gained access to electricity through M-KOPA’s solar home systems

Kerosene use has decreased significantly, leading to health improvements and reduced indoor air pollution

The initiative has also created jobs in distribution, maintenance, and sales of solar systems

The key challenge remains ensuring long-term maintenance and affordability for the lowest- income consumers

Context

Rwanda, like many low-income countries, faced significant challenges in providing reliable grid access to rural areas

The high costs of extending the national grid to remote regions, coupled with low population density, made grid expansion financially impractical

Off-grid solar systems emerged as a scalable solution to meet rural energy needs and improve electricity access in underserved areas

Implementation

Rwanda’s government partnered with private companies to deploy off-grid solar home systems (SHS) through a pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) financing model

Households paid small, regular installments via mobile money platforms, allowing them to afford the SHS without large upfront costs

The initiative was supported by international donors and public- private partnerships, allowing for wider distribution across rural areas

Impact

By 2021, over 500,000 households were connected to off-grid solar systems (source: Rwandan Ministryof Infrastructure)

This significantly improved living conditions, replacing kerosene lamps with cleaner, safer solar lighting

Improved access to electricity positively affects education and healthcare, with rural schools and clinics benefiting from reliable power

However, affordability for the lowest-income households and long-term system maintenance remained ongoing challenges

Context

Fiji, a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), is highly vulnerable to climate change, with rising sea levels and extreme weather events threatening its energy infrastructure

The country heavily relies on imported fossil fuels for electricity generation, making it vulnerable to global fuel price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions

With its abundant solar resources, Fiji recognized the need for decentralized, renewable energy solutions to reduce reliance on imports and increase resilience to climate change

Implementation

Fiji’s government introduced decentralized solar systems, particularly for remote and rural communities, which are harder to connect to the national grid

The initiative was supported by international donors and development organizations that helped fund solar projects and promote energy resilience

Solar mini-grids and standalone solar home systems were integrated with disaster-resilient technologies, such as battery storage, to ensure consistent energy supply during extreme weather events

Impact

Decentralized solar systems improved energy access for thousands of Fijians living in remote areas, reducing reliance on diesel generators

Shift to solar power increased resilience against weather and enhanced energy security by reducing dependence on imported fuels

Solar installations contributed to Fiji’s goal of achieving 100% renewable energy by 2030, helping the country reduce GHG emissions

Scaling solar faces challenge due to the high upfront costs and the need for ongoing international support

Context

The Maldives is one of themost climate-vulnerable nations, with rising sealevels threatening its landand infrastructure

The country has long relied on imported diesel for power generation, leading to high energy costs and carbon emissions

Recognizing the need to reduce diesel dependency and adapt to climate change, the Maldives turned to innovative solar solutions, including floating solar projects

Implementation

The Maldives developed floating solar farms on artificial platforms or rafts, which are anchored to the sea or lagoons, conserving the limited land space while generating renewable energy

The government partnered with international donors and private investors to fund and implement these solar projects

These floating solar farms are integrated with battery storage is designed to minimize environmental impacts while maximizing solar energy production, even during extreme weather conditions

Impact

Floating solar farms provided the Maldives with a sustainable, space-efficient renewable energy source, reducing the dependency on diesel

Maldives has reduced its carbon emissions and improved energy security in the face of climate- related challenges

These projects are also seenas a model for other low-lying island nations facing similar threats from rising sea levels

High costs of implementing and maintaining floating solar systems and the complexity of marine-based operations, remain challenges

Context

Morocco has limited domestic fossil fuel resources, relying heavily on energy imports to meet its growing energy demands

The government sought to reduce energy dependence and position the country as a leader in renewable energy, particularly solar, given Morocco’s high levels of solar radiation

The launch of the Noor Solar Complex was part of Morocco’s national energy strategy to achieve 52% of its energy generation from renewables by 2030

Implementation

The Noor Solar Complex, locatedin Ouarzazate, is one of the world’s largest concentrated solar power (CSP) plants, designed to generate electricity even during non-sunlight hours through thermal storage

The project was developed in multiple phases, combining CSP with photovoltaic (PV) technology to maximize solar output

Supported by the Moroccan government, international donors, and private investors, the project leveraged financing from the World Bank, European Investment Bank, and other international institutions

Impact

The Noor Solar Complex has a total installed capacity of over 500 MW, significantly reducing Morocco’s reliance on imported fossil fuels

The project helped avoid~690000 tons of carbon emissions annually making Morocco a regional leader in renewable energy

It created thousands of jobs, particularly during the construction phase, and spurred economic development in the Ouarzazate region

Challenges include high initial capital costs and the need for continued investment to scale similar projects across the country